4E Generation:

The notion of generation is a helpful tool for conceptualizing the history, current state and forecast of a city because like any other organism, cities are subject to the phrase: the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. For instance, consider Rome, London, and New York as different generations of a lineage. While Rome was not the exclusive root of influence in London, and London was not the only influence to New York, the relationships between these cities had such a profound effect on the development of each prodigious city that cultural and structural similarities are comparable to the similarities between a parent and child. Like family legacies, all three cities represent or have represented epicenters of an empire that has moved westward through time. The destination and direction of movement has correlated positively with the magnitude of relationship.

The notion of legacy does not end with New York City. In terms of forecasting the post-New York City (aka: Northeast Megalopolis) epicenter, New York’s strongest relationships are the key indicators of developmental direction. As I see it, Los Angeles, and California as a whole are the primary contenders in light of the following:
a. Contemporary population trends in the United States show the center of population persistently shifting southwest:

b. The southwest (aka the Sun Belt) is experiencing explosive population growth while the northeast (aka the Rust Belt) has seen considerable decay and stabilization.

Figure 13

c. At 150 years of age, the geographical distribution of Los Angeles metropolitan area is 4,850 square miles with a population of about 13 million people. This is extraordinary considering that New York metro at roughly the same age (in 1850) had a population of about 700,000 people. Even in comparisons that do not take into account relative age, today Los Angeles and New York City show signs of an increasingly close competition (Figure 14).


Table 2: Los Angeles and New York, a comparative glimpse (Source for Columns 1-5: July 1, 2006 US Census Bureau estimates)
d. California is a dominant entity in the Pacific Rim, an area also experiencing considerable growth.
e. On a cultural level (largely as a result of the film industry) California has a separate, independent and favorable global status relative to the United States as a whole. This may serve as a stabilizing variable for this particular region should challenges to American dominance intensify.

In addition to the strengths of California and Los Angeles, the northeast Megalopolis has one important weakness: status. As with human individuals, status is a blessing and a curse. The attacks of September 11, 2001 reflect that the northeast corridor (New York and Washington, DC predominantly) is the focal point of anti-western frustration. Drawing again from the lineage of cities, Rome, London, and New York, history suggests that further instability in the region is likely.

While the prediction of Los Angeles as dominant over New York might be a foreign idea, history also shows us that surprises are likely, profound, and sudden. I hope for a smooth transition from New York to Los Angeles, but it is naive not to qualify that the rise of Los Angeles, as with the rise of New York, London, and Rome, requires the fall of a predecessor. It is important to note that Rome and London are alive and well. These cities did not die. Instead, they were dealt blows which stalled growth. Meanwhile, younger cities of close relation, continued to boom.