5B. Australia

As dominance shifts west in the United States and the Pacific Rim grows more established, I foresee Australia as one of the next globally dominant western states. In other words, Australia will be the recipient of “America’s Crown.” Quite often China is considered the favorite in terms of the future superpower of the world. However, I believe that due to cultural strengths, geographic size, a solid economic foundation, and the discounted importance of political loyalties, Australia will surprise most. Some specific reasons:

• a. Separate systems:
• a1. China is the favorite of projections, but note that the European and Asian systems are separate. Consider Tokyo (and Japan as a whole) as its own global focal point equal to New York. While the Chinese and American economies are currently exchanging and interacting, it is hard to foresee western dominance being completely absorbed into Asia. It is more likely the two will continue on complimentary trajectories.
• a2. Many people attach a winner/loser paradigm to the China and USA interaction. However, this analogy discounts the ease in which the systems interact. The fact that this relationship is growing and complimentary supports what is likely the urban organism’s optimum growth and development objective: global/spherical range.
• a3. Indeed China and Asia will be very important in the future. Recall that London was not the sole successor of Rome. I highlight Australia not to discount China, but to draw attention to a surprise in waiting.
• b. The English speaking world is gaining influence.
• c. It is more likely the next superpower will be a blend of Western and Asian cultures, less likely one or the other. Future focal points are usually blends of the powerful entities of the past (i.e. Los Angeles and the Southwestern United States in many ways embody a marriage between the Spanish and English empires), Australia has a culture of Asian and Western immigration and integration. Population trends suggest that most Australians will be genetically Eurasian in one hundred years.
• d. Dominant states in their formative years are recipients of immigrants from the older dominant system. Like its predecessors, it is likely that economic and cultural trends in the United States will continue to move in a direction where society is becoming more stratefied and there exists a growing segment of the population that works harder while experiencing decreased or stagnant quality of life. In other words, the “American dream” will cease to be a possibility for these individuals. Thus, there will emerge groups of people who seek opportunity elsewhere. Australia is a likely recipient of a large quantity of these people due to its favorable reputation in the United States, the fact that awareness of Australia is growing, and the “Australian Dream” will begin to enter the mindset of the western world. Furthermore, American emigrants may feel more comfortable moving to Australia because of real and perceived cultural, historical and lingual similarities.
• e. Population potential:
• e1. People scoff at the idea of Australia becoming a dominant world power. I am sure the same laughs would have been heard in 18th century England if the same had been said of America. Part of the issue lies in Australia’s relatively small population. This however, does not say much about the future. For North American cities, technological innovation allowed explosive population growth far beyond what the founding fathers (whose conception of the future is reflected in the content of the American Constitution) would have foreseen. One example is New York City, once second tier to the dominant booming Philadelphia of the 18th century. New York became the American financial center and largest city in the country following the construction of the Eerie Canal. Similar examples exist in the Southwestern United States and their transformative effects have been discussed. Australia is a nation in need of technological innovation to increase water reserves. In fact, it may not be long until the Australian economy is forced to come up with solutions for a very severe national water shortage. Taking into consideration this need combined with Australia’s high level of education and young culture, this is also a likely place for the development of such technology . Young cities are innovative, and this has enabled rapid growth of record setting proportion.
• e2. The movement of industry out of western cities and into the developing world has changed the nature of western cities dramatically. The population requirements that once determined city potency are shifting. Western cities in the future may boast relatively low population with high per capita quality of life. This would signify a further extreme to the trend of western privilege. Not only is industry out of sight, but highly skilled individuals, likely members of what is now known as the “leisure class,” will take advantage of technologies facilitating remote performance while living in cities that are comparatively luxurious in the global context. Again, referring to the Chinese comparison: Indeed the growth in China is impressive, but recall that the nature of economic development in China is akin to development experienced in western cities 100 years ago. Western cities will likely retain their sophistication and “head start.” I foresee an increase in the magnitude by which western cities are concentrated centers of the most skilled individuals on the planet.
• f. Friends in high places: In their rebellious pride, Americans may not realise that 1776 was not the beginning of the end for the English Empire, but instead the beginning of a new chapter. Australia is part of the same story, part of one of the most powerful networks in the world.
• g. Big neighbors: Australia’s population is 20 million. The population of Asia is about 3 billion. It is hard to foresee this population ratio remaining stable in the long term. Recall the idea of city generation gap and apply it to a variable that typically increases in magnitude across generations; growth and immigration. For example, the United States has absorbed about 20 million illegal immigrants in the last 15 years, a number far exceeding previous waves. Similar record breaking waves of immigration were experienced in the 19th century throughout the northeastern United States when Irish, German, and Italian immigrants flooded into the country. Through history, immigration waves across western civilization have increased in magnitude. It is possible that Australia, consensually or forcibly, will experience a similar wave from Asia of record setting proportions.
• h. Young cities: Young cities are privy to cutting edge technological breakthroughs because they are the likely birthplace of such innovation. As a result, these same cities will grow larger faster. Furthermore, city growth depends on city network. A young city in a network of many older cities will experience a high rate of competition and grow less freely than a young city that is isolated or part of a network of young cities. Australia is home to some of the youngest cities and also the youngest city network in the world. In terms of innovation, growth, and power, Australia has been dealt a favorable hand.
• i. Time: Probably the most important factor of this projection is time. No matter how quickly urban growth accelerates, relative to a human life, cities grow gradually. I doubt Australia, the world power, will emerge before 2100 . The peak of Australia’s status is not my focus. I have deliberately followed a westward trajectory from my birthplace in New Jersey to Western Australia to find the western frontier, where I can participate in the early rapid-growth phase of western cities.

Sydney is the likely Australian candidate to surpass Los Angeles. While this does not mean that today Sydney is solely influenced by Los Angeles, it does mean that by the time Sydney reaches its pinnacle life stage, the predominant influence of Los Angeles will be common knowledge in the same way it is common knowledge in Boston, New York, and Philadelphia that London has been one of the most influential European cities in the Northeastern United States. Thus, increased American influence in Australia will be a hallmark in coming years. This influence may well reach a magnitude where Australia is motivated to actively assert its independence and autonomy in the relationship just as was done in the American colonies in 1776.