6C. The "New World":

When we consider the fundamental nature of human conflict and change we gain a perspective from which to approach the controversial and tragic issues effecting young systems and indigenous groups around the world. With regard to South Africa specifically, traditional lifestyles are being selected against. With time, highly unstable processes which mark the introduction of the urban organism, like disease, war, and integration will run their course and stabilise. While stabilisation does not equate to the eradication of these problems, many of the issues that inspire pessimistic economic forecasts will be replaced by issues characteristic of a more mature, developed western system. Indeed today South Africa is risky, future wars may gestate, and the government is young, but this is characteristic of a fledgling system. As with many other organisms, the highest risks occur throughout early developmental stages.

Even with risk taken into consideration, I foresee an optimistic economic future in South Africa. Furthermore, I project that the improved economic conditions that take root in South Africa will spread north throughout Sub Sahara Africa. Opinions that suppose otherwise discount the uncertainty that existed in what are now model economies.

I deliberately use the words “New World” in the title of this chapter to liken Africa to the North America of hundreds of years ago. From its inception in the 15th century to the late 19th century, uncertainty comparable to that currently existing in South Africa was a harsh reality in North America where the conflict between western and indigenous cultures was rife for hundreds of years. The farmer murders that occur today in South Africa are not unlike the brutal slayings of settlers of the “wild west,” many of whom were hijacked in their covered wagons and murdered on their journey westward. These hate crimes send a clear message into urban centers: “get out.” The intention is to spark fear, and indeed such acts do. However more clearly revealed is desperation. Traditional societies in Africa are experiencing the encroaching strain of the urban organism. For those who refuse to integrate, or even more frustrating, are not presented with the opportunities that faciliate integration, such acts of desperation reflect the effects of mortal stress.

Uncertainty in North America stretched beyond conflict between western and indigenous societies. Revolutionary War, Civil War, territorial expansion, poverty, disease, and murderous corruption consumed politics and culture in a region rarely associated with such topics today. Still, the urban organism experienced a pattern of accelerated growth which continues today. Furthermore, to conclude that North America is today free of these problems and without risk would be wrong. No place is without risk. However, depending on the age of the system, types and probability of risk change.

Violence is perhaps the most immediate and distressing issue in contemporary South Africa and it is unfortunate and often misguided. Holding individuals accountable for the encroachment of the urban organism does not deter its growth. Considering the mutual exclusivity demonstrated between western and indigenous groups, the two predominant solutions for indigenous individuals are successful integration or absolute isolation. Both of these solutions are complex and represent two opposite ends of the spectrum. Furthermore, most people who are suffering as a result of the urban organism fall somewhere in the middle between western and indigenous. We can posit solutions and the government will design legislation to assist indigenous peoples, but in terms of projecting an outcome, the indigenous African experience will likely be comparable to what has been experienced in more mature systems like North America and Australia. Specifically, indigenous groups will experience population decline (through disease, integration) and dispossession (geographic and political).

In my view, hindsight provided by more mature systems does not equate into an increased ability to control outcomes. Just as cities have a set pattern of growth, so too there is a set pattern of decline among indigenous organisms. While South Africa may solve in ten years problems North America took far longer to sort out, new problems will arise and the general theme and pattern of western invasion will remain intact; the western organism is inevitably intrusive.